- Environmental impact of Electric Vehicles in India:
As the name suggests, Electric Vehicles consume electricity. The battery is charged for a period of 6-8 hours. So, electricity is the fuel in electric vehicles. However, let's look at the sources of electricity generation in India.
As of 31st March 2020, As per the Ministry of Power, Govt. of India, data, India's total electricity installed capacity is 370106 MW. Out of which 62.8% is generated by thermal fuels such as coal (54.2%), Lignite (1.7%), Gas (6.9%), Diesel (0.1%). Hydro contributes 12.4% to India's total electricity installed capacity. Nuclear contributes 1.9%. And Renewable energy sources contribute 23.5%.
Therefore, when 62.8% of electricity in India is coming from fossil fuels, then, won't that negatively impact the environment? Electric vehicles are brought in the market with the idea that they will reduce emissions. But, facts tell us that since 62.8% of all electricity generation in India is coming from fossil fuels, then, what will be the savings on the emissions front? And it is certain that no major country on earth would give up on its fossil fuels.
Secondly, it is clearly established that the process of manufacturing an electric car generates more CO2 than the process of manufacturing an IC engine car.
Thirdly, today's IC engines are highly efficient and there is continuous research & development going on to make them even more efficient.
Besides, the electric battery when discarded after years of use will result in a further environmental hazard. The discarded battery will end up in our lakes, rivers, and oceans, thereby poisoning the water bodies across India and negatively impacting marine life. When we can't recycle plastic and electronic waste, then, what is the guarantee that we will be able to recycle discarded batteries? Human beings must accept the fact that they are bad at recycling stuff unless there is an economic gain in the waste.
Besides, the electric battery when discarded after years of use will result in a further environmental hazard. The discarded battery will end up in our lakes, rivers, and oceans, thereby poisoning the water bodies across India and negatively impacting marine life. When we can't recycle plastic and electronic waste, then, what is the guarantee that we will be able to recycle discarded batteries? Human beings must accept the fact that they are bad at recycling stuff unless there is an economic gain in the waste.
Therefore, given all the above factors, what's the fuss about electric vehicles? In fact, if we as a human race focus on improving the soil and reducing meat consumption, then, we might, in fact, take a concrete step towards tackling the issues of global warming.
"Now, let's assess how will electric vehicles affect the Indian economy"?
Now, it's all right to talk about electric vehicles or EVs, however, talking about these things without proper research can be detrimental to India's manufacturing sector as well as to India's economy. Let's assess it here:
- First thing first, let's get some numbers for India's automobile sector:
India's automobile sector (including component manufacturing) is expected to touch 251.4 - 282.8 billion US$ by 2026.
Two-wheeler sales dominate the auto industry with approximately 81% of vehicles sold in FY 2019 belonging to the two-wheelers category.
The automotive industry also employs approximately 37 million people directly and indirectly. Direct employment is roughly 10 million whereas indirect employment is 27 million.
The automotive industry also contributes about 50% to India's domestic manufacturing output.
These are massive numbers and any disruption in the automotive industry is bound to impact the growth of India's GDP as well as employment generation.
- Having assessed the current automotive numbers, let's now focus on the working of Electric Vehicles.
An Electric Vehicle runs on an electric battery. This electric battery is made from 4 major materials namely Lithium, Cobalt, Manganese, and Graphite. And India does not possess these materials in abundance. Therefore, India will need to import these raw materials from abroad to make electric batteries in India. Where are these 4 major materials found in abundance? Primarily in Africa and South America. And China has already secured deals with these countries to buy these 4 major materials. China has already developed the supply chain and has become the leader in the manufacturing of electric batteries. India has lagged behind in this aspect. Neither do we have secured substantial deals to procure raw materials from Africa and South America nor do we have developed manufacturing capabilities to develop electric batteries in India.
Electric Vehicles are constant torque vehicles. What does constant torque vehicle mean? It means, in laymen's terms, Electric Vehicles won't be requiring a gearbox system. You just install the electric battery and accelerate. That's it. No gearbox system, no clutch system, just accelerate and use the brake system as and when required. At the same time, since Electric Vehicles would be running on a battery, therefore, there won't be any need for a combustion engine (diesel or petrol). Therefore, there won't be any need for carburetors, injectors, pistons, combustion chambers, flywheels, etc.
- Therefore, with the adoption of Electric Vehicles, 3 things would happen in India.
Firstly, since, China has taken a lead in the manufacturing of electric batteries, and India has lagged behind, therefore, for the foreseeable future, we would have to source batteries from China. It is already happening. Many companies, large or small, have already started sourcing batteries from China. In fact, many startups have mushroomed in India that make electric bikes. All these startups source battery, controller, and other body parts from China and then assemble in India. These companies call themselves as manufacturing companies, however, these companies are nothing but assembler. Since, electric batteries, controllers, and other body parts are manufactured in China, therefore, the bulk of the jobs are generated in China and not in India. At the same time, these electric batteries are highly expensive. India's trade deficit with China is already in excess of 60+ billion US$ (approximately, 4.2 Lacs Crore Rupees). Do we want to increase it further? Do we want to create manufacturing jobs in China? The answer is NO.
The second point is since electric vehicles will do away with components such as a gearbox, clutch, combustion engine, piston, carburetor, injector, flywheel, then, what will happen to the component manufacturing companies who are currently manufacturing these components? Won't it result in the loss of manufacturing jobs on a large scale? All these component manufacturing companies employ millions of people. All these component manufacturing companies have invested heavily in setting up manufacturing plants. What will happen to these jobs? What will happen to these manufacturing plants? Won't it derail the Make in India initiative? Won't it slow down India's GDP growth? Won't it make millions of people jobless?
And thirdly, what will happen to a roadside mechanic whom people approach on a typical Sunday to get their car repaired or serviced? Since electric vehicles will operate on a battery and do away with components such as clutch, gearbox, piston, combustion chamber, etc., therefore, the need for car maintenance will reduce. An electric battery will need less maintenance. Therefore, what will happen to millions of unorganized car mechanics in India? Won't it result in a loss of jobs in the informal sector? Won't it slow down India's consumption and in turn slow down GDP growth further?
- Conclusion
Therefore, unless and until India secures substantial deals with African and South American countries to source Lithium, Manganese, Cobalt, Graphite, and at the same time India develops its own capabilities in the manufacturing of electric batteries, we must not rush towards electric vehicles. Once we have developed internal capabilities to manufacture electric batteries, we can shift current component manufacturing jobs to electric battery manufacturing. That is doable. But without developing our own capabilities in the manufacturing of electric batteries and simply sourcing these batteries, controllers from China, we will be doing a great disservice to India's economy.
